Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon trails by just five points on 40 per cent.

Meanwhile, Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd looks set to scoop eight per cent of the vote, with Rupert Lowe’s party snatching support from Reform UK.

However, Nigel Farage will hope to win over some of the one-in-eight Makerfield voters still yet to make up their minds ahead of June 18.

The survey, which included 515 respondents between May 28 and June 12, revealed the Greens, Tories and Liberal Democrats will likely lose their deposits.

Green support stands at just three per cent, edging out the Conservatives on two per cent and the Liberal Democrats on one per cent.

Mr Lowe, who was elected Reform UK’s MP for Great Yarmouth in 2024, set up Restore Britain after having a major bust-up with Mr Farage.

Rupert Lowe leads Restore Britain

The 68-year-old, who formerly sat alongside Mr Farage as a Brexit Party MEP, was accused of threatening Reform UK’s then-chairman Zia Yusuf.

Mr Lowe has consistently denied the allegations made against him.

Restore Britain was formed as a pressure group in June 2025 before officially becoming a political party in February of this year.

Speaking in Makerfield earlier this week, Mr Farage directly commented on the challenge Reform UK faces from Restore Britain.

He said: “If you vote for Restore, you risk perhaps the most left-wing Prime Minister of modern times, so that’s the simple message that I am going to put to Restore voters.”

More in Common found the by-election is too close to call

The Reform UK leader also accused Restore Britain supporters of orchestrating a campaign of online abuse against his allies.

“The levels of hatred and abuse that we get from some of their supporters online is pretty vile stuff, I can tell you,” the Clacton MP said.

“I’m not going to return the compliment. I’ll just make it very clear it’s a two-horse race. Only Reform can beat the Labour Party in this by-election.”

Mr Lowe responded to Mr Farage’s comments about Restore Britain on social media.

Nigel Farage spoke to Makerfield voters a week before the crunch contest | GETTY

The Great Yarmouth MP, who is backed by X owner Elon Musk, said: “Farage throwing around more outright lies about Restore Britain on national television just now.”

However, Restore Britain supporters point to the party’s success in Great Yarmouth in the 2026 Local Elections as evidence of the threat posed to Reform UK.

Despite Reform UK winning 40 seats on Norfolk County Council, candidates endorsed by Mr Lowe under the Great Yarmouth First banner secured a clean sweep in the East of England seaside town.

Mr Lowe, who claims Restore Britain has now set up 550 local branches, confirmed this week that he intends to stand candidates across the UK at the next general election.

Andy Burnham is eyeing up a return to Westminster | GETTY

Luke Tryl, More in Common’s UK director, told The Times: “Andy Burnham appears to have the advantage entering the final week of the Makerfield by-election.

“But with Reform only five points behind and more than one in ten voters still undecided, the last few days could prove pivotal.

“What seems absolutely clear is that if Burnham pulls this off, he will have his personal vote to thank.

“Both this poll and our focus groups in the seat show the prime minister is deeply unpopular in the constituency, with voters unconvinced that Starmer respects them or is capable of leading the country.”

Marc Stears, director of UCL Policy Lab, added: “This election is being shaped by voters’ desire to find politicians who respect them and attend to their concerns. Both Burnham and Kenyon seek to embody this in different ways.

“Our poll shows a close race but what looks like it could pull Burnham over the line is that he’s seen as different to other politicians, and seen as able to restore that respect.

“These are lessons whoever wants to lead the country must heed rather than immediately dive back into SW1 business as usual.”